The wait for monsoon in Mumbai and most of the west coast is expected to continue for a longer period, with no significant advance in the southwest monsoon expected in the next five days, even as the overall monsoon deficit reaches 38% so far this season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
To be sure, June rains average only about 19 to 20 percent of the rain India receives from June 1 to September 30, the duration of the country’s southwest monsoon.
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Only some advance is expected through the eastern arm of the monsoon, with no advance likely on the western arm until at least June 22, officials said. Further monsoon advance, including on the western side, is expected to pick up again only on June 22 and 23, with a low pressure area developing over the Bay of Bengal.
“The southwest monsoon is likely to advance to some other parts of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and some parts of Chhattisgarh over the next four to five days,” the IMD said in its national weather bulletin on Wednesday.
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On June 17, the northern limit of the monsoon was passing through Harnai, Solapur, Hyderabad, Bhadrachalam, Koraput, Phulbani, Ranchi, Jamui, and Muzaffarpur.
“The moisture content over the Arabian Sea is currently weak. We expect it to advance on the western side from June 23,” IMD DG M Mohapatra said.
The IMD certainly got ahead of the curve and announced the onset of monsoon over Maharashtra on June 8; But the state did not witness any rain, and the state government asked farmers to postpone sowing plans.
Since June 1, the country as a whole has recorded 46.2 mm of rainfall, against a long-period average of 74.3 mm, representing a deficit of 38%, IMD data showed. The most affected region is central India, where the deficit currently stands at 62%. Meteorologists said progress was halted by the double blow of the El Niño phenomenon as well as the lack of local weather systems.
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El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by rising ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It disrupts regular wind and atmospheric pressure patterns, including weakening the southwest monsoon by reducing humidity.
“Currently, there is no weather system over the Bay of Bengal. There must be a low or low pressure area to give the monsoon a boost in the eastern parts of the country. There is also a need for monsoon withdrawal across the western coast of the Arabian Sea,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of private meteorological firm Skymet, adding that the monsoon is expected to start advancing after June 22 or 23.
“A pressure zone is likely to develop over time in the central Bay of Bengal,” he said, noting that the monsoon may only touch Mumbai by June 25.
The normal date for the arrival of monsoon in Mumbai is June 11.
Rain-fed agriculture constitutes approximately 60% of the net cultivated area in India, which makes vast areas of agricultural land highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations. A weak monsoon directly damages crop production, leading to higher food price inflation while also shrinking disposable income in rural areas.
