A series of defections, splits and mergers in some of India’s largest opposition parties could push the National Democratic Alliance within striking distance of the two-thirds majority in parliament, the majority needed to pass constitutional amendments implementing the delimitation of electoral districts and a quota for women.
In the 2024 general elections, four of India’s most populous provinces – Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu – dealt the BJP a setback, restricting its tally in the Lok Sabha to 240 votes and the NDA’s to 293 votes.
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But after the latest round of opinion polls in five states and union territories, the ruling regime is seeking to turn the tables on the opposition, which banded together to defeat the government’s attempt to implement a women’s quota and demarcation system earlier this year.
NDA is slowly approaching the goal
Now, the NDA is slowly approaching the goal – state by state. In Bengal, if the proposed merger of 20 rebel Trinamool Congress MPs with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI) goes ahead. Parasat MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, the de facto leader of the rebel group, said they would support the NDA and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Parliament.
Then, on Wednesday, six Lok Sabha members of the Shiv Sena (UBT) wrote to Speaker Om Birla, requesting the formation of a separate group. The party, which has nine representatives in the House of Representatives, issued a whip asking its representatives to attend a meeting of the party’s parliamentary unit on Thursday.
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Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut alleged that the rebels were being bought off. “I received a call from an important person who told me every representative was on offer $50 crores to leave the party. $Rs 15 crore was given as advance. “I have been told that MPs are not willing to sit on charter planes until they get the advance.”
If the rebel Sena leaders get their way, the NDA’s numbers could reach 319.
In UP, speculation of a split in the Samajwadi Party started doing the rounds on Wednesday after state minister and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party chief Om Prakash Rajbhar claimed that a major split in the SP was likely. “The SP will witness a major split. Ram Gopal Yadav has handed over a letter to Union Home Minister Amit Shah,” Rajbhar said on X. He added that the situation is not limited to Maharashtra and West Bengal and that “the entire SP is ready to join the BJP.”
In a veiled attack on Rajbhar, Akhilesh Yadav said on Channel Speaking to reporters, he added: “The Socialist Party remains united.”
In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s tense relations with its former ally the Congress appear to have created an opportunity. HT reported on June 10 that the BJP had begun discussions with the DMK, which has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight in the Rajya Sabha. A DMK spokesperson declined to comment on the matter.
In the current 540-member House of Representatives, the NDA has 293 members and needs 360 to pass the bill.
In the Rajya Sabha too, the process of disruption is in full swing. The National Democratic Alliance, which has 149 members, needs 164 votes out of 245 members of the Rajya Sabha. After the Rajya Sabha elections held on June 18, the NDA’s numbers are expected to rise to 155. Additionally, there are at least three vacancies as a result of the resignation of TMC Rajya Sabha members earlier this month. With the BJP controlling 208 of the 294 members of the West Bengal Assembly, the Rajya Sabha polls in the state are expected to go in favor of the BJP.
