US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran now has the ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz at will, giving Tehran a powerful new tool to disrupt the global economy despite a framework peace agreement expected to be formally signed later this week, according to a CNN report citing sources familiar with the assessments.Intelligence findings indicate that Iran’s actions during the recent conflict demonstrated the intention and ability to close the strategically vital waterway, which carries a large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports.“We have now handed over to Iran effective control of the Strait, a weapon more powerful than any nuclear weapon.” A source familiar with US intelligence assessments said, according to CNN.According to the report, US officials believe Iran has also learned that it can use targeted strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure as an effective asymmetric tool, increasing its leverage in future confrontations.
Fears despite the expected agreement
The United States and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and paving the way for nuclear negotiations.
However, according to CNN, US intelligence officials continue to reassess the possibility that Iran could again use the waterway as a leverage point in future conflicts.A senior US official said that Iran would only gain benefits from the agreement if it kept the strait open and complied with its other obligations. The official said that the United States will gradually ease its blockade in proportion to Iran’s restoration of normal maritime traffic.Shipping industry officials have warned that uncertainty surrounding the agreement could keep commercial traffic through the strait below normal levels for weeks or even months.
Iran maintains its military capabilities
According to CNN, one reason the United States is concerned is that Iran still possesses a large stockpile of weapons, including missiles, drones, missile launchers and hundreds of fast attack boats capable of harassing commercial ships or laying mines.The report also said that Iran is rebuilding parts of its military industrial base faster than expected and has already resumed drone production.US intelligence assessments also suggest that Iran may be more willing to close the strait again in future conflicts because it was able to do so during the last war without significantly depleting its military capabilities.
The Houthi threat remains a concern
US intelligence officials are also monitoring what CNN described as a potential Iranian economy “The nuclear option”It encouraged the Houthi rebels in Yemen to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another major global trade route linking the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.The sources also said that simultaneous disturbances in both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab could have serious consequences for global trade and energy markets.However, officials believe that Iran has so far refrained from taking this step because it could hamper ongoing diplomatic efforts and planned nuclear negotiations.
Questions remain about the broader peace framework
Meanwhile, new uncertainty emerged over the broader peace deal after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the agreement would require Israel to withdraw from areas of south Lebanon it occupied during the conflict.“Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the lands they occupied during this war, the war would not have reached a complete end.” Araqchi said.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected this position, saying that Israel would remain in Lebanon “As long as it is necessary”.The agreement, which was reached with the help of Pakistan and Qatar, is expected to provide for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and the start of 60 days of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program.Despite the unresolved issues, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom welcomed the agreement as a first step. “Diplomatic breakthrough”Emphasizing the need to expedite its implementation.
