El Nino — a pattern of warming in the Pacific Ocean that weakens India’s monsoons and leads to harsh summers — is happening now, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency on Wednesday, an announcement that will alert the India Meteorological Institution as the rainy season struggles to establish itself.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said that distinct El Niño conditions have been observed in both the ocean and atmosphere of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and that an event is currently underway. The India Meteorological Office has not yet made the same announcement, but the threshold is close. “We will issue a statement soon, based on the models we are reviewing, on the onset of El Niño conditions,” said M Mohapatra, Director-General of the International Institute for Management Development.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which issued its assessment on June 9, stopped short of a full announcement, but confirmed that the Pacific Ocean was approaching the threshold. Sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific are now above the La Nin threshold, and atmospheric indicators are starting to align, the BOM said. “If this continues, El Niño will likely become a reality,” she added.
This development confirms what the revised IMD forecast predicted on May 29. India’s monsoon rainfall this season is expected to reach 90% of the long-period average – down from 92% expected in April – and El Niño is expected to suppress rainfall especially in the second half of the season. The average LPA, based on 1971-2020 data, is 87 cm. The forecast also indicates a 60% chance of weak monsoon. In India, El Niño is historically associated with weaker monsoons and harsher summers. The current season follows this pattern in some ways, with delayed onset of cyclones in Kerala and June weather expected to be below normal.
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The importance of the season for India cannot be overstated. Nearly half of the country’s cultivated area lacks access to irrigation, and the system is working to replenish 91 natural reservoirs that provide power generation and drinking water. This season comes at a time when farmers are already facing a potential shortage of fertilizer supplies due to the war in West Asia. The UN Secretary-General has moved to frame this moment as a global emergency. “The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning,” António Guterres said on June 2.
Read also: IMD lowers monsoon forecast below normal, warns of hottest June: here’s why
Global temperature data shed light on the context in which El Niño arrives. May 2026 was the second warmest May on record globally on land and at sea, behind only May 2024, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Wednesday. The average surface air temperature for May was 15.81°C – 0.55°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.42°C above the estimated pre-industrial baseline of 1850-1900. The average sea surface temperature was 20.90°C, just below the record high of 20.93°C set in May 2024.
Europe experienced one of its most severe early-season heatwaves on record in May, with France, the UK, Ireland and Portugal recording particularly harsh conditions.
