India’s total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement threshold for the first time, according to the Registration System Statistical Report Form 2024, published by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs.
This means that the total fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, is now below the level needed to keep a population stable over time.
Is India’s population declining?
India’s population was 360 million in 1950, when an average woman gave birth to six children. The country’s population today is 1.45 billion people. It overtook China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous country and has continued to grow ever since.
However, India’s total fertility rate has declined, according to the government report. It is worth noting that the national TFR has moved below the replacement criterion of 2.1.
But what is the replacement level? It indicates the average number of children each woman should have so that the population can replace itself from generation to generation without growing or shrinking. If fertility remains below this level for a long period, population growth gradually slows down.
The population is expected to continue to increase for several years. However, unless fertility rates rise above 2.15 again, population decline is inevitable in the future. The Economist magazine said in a report that fertility is likely to continue to decline, which may accelerate this decline.
Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimate that India’s population will reach a 21-year high before it begins a sharp decline, the report said. By the end of this century, the country’s population is expected to be just over a billion people, a decline of about half a billion people.
Bihar has the highest fertility rates, and Delhi’s fertility rate is lower than Finland’s
Although national figures indicate a slowdown in population growth, the government report shows significant differences between regions.
Bihar recorded the highest fertility rate in the country at 2.9. It was followed by Uttar Pradesh with 2.6, Madhya Pradesh with 2.4, and Rajasthan with 2.3. These remain the only large states with fertility rates above replacement level.
At the other end of the scale, Delhi recorded the lowest fertility rate in the country at 1.2, which is lower than Finland’s 1.3, Finnish broadcaster Yle quoted Statistics Finland in a report.
Fertility levels remained much lower in many southern and western states. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal reported a total fertility rate of 1.3. Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra and Punjab scored 1.4, while Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana each scored 1.5.
Elon Musk talks about the birth rate in India
Tech billionaire Elon Musk also shared a post on social media to amplify a media report suggesting a decline in the total fertility rate.
“India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement level. Among the most educated people, India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement level for many years,” Musk wrote on X.
What led to this?
The Economist has identified several factors that may influence family planning options across the country.
One reason is the changing ambitions of Indian parents today. Many low-income families choose to have only one child so that they can afford tutoring and other educational opportunities.
Another factor behind small families is the weakness of the joint family system. Government data indicate that about 70% of people now live in nuclear families, driven by urbanization and shifts in employment patterns. As a result, raising children puts more pressure on parents, encouraging them to have fewer children.
The third reason is cultural change. While education and family arrangements influence decisions, social attitudes also play a role.
Small families are increasingly viewed as desirable, a trend linked to access to technology and information, the report said. One study found that the arrival of cable television in villages during the 2000s was followed by a decline in pregnancies. The researcher linked this to television drama series that depicted urban middle-class women raising small families.
