In 1996, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was on the rise when the beleaguered Congress sought to form an alliance for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. BSP obliged. By then, the BJP had shared power with the Samajwadi Party (SP) for a year and 181 days and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for 137 days. The BSP was sought after to gain influence among the Bahujan Samaj, or marginalized sections of Dalits, Scheduled Tribes (STs), Other Backward Classes (OBCs), and religious minorities, and its leadership was not averse to forging alliances with parties across ideological divides.
The alliance between the Congress and the BSP has been described as a surrender of a 12-year-old party. But it brought hope to the declining Congress, whose vote share in Uttar Pradesh fell to 8% in the April 1996 Lok Sabha elections. Congress leaders from across the country campaigned for the BSP-led alliance. The Congress passed a resolution promising a secular and stable government under Mayawati with a development-oriented administration.
In contrast, BSP founder Kanshi Ram sought the support of the Congress, with the two parties holding joint rallies that attracted huge crowds. The pre-election electoral coalition collapsed within two months. He failed to obtain a majority in the state assembly. The BJP ditched the Congress and joined the same “communal” BJP it had vowed to overthrow, and formed the government.
Mayawati described the Congress as the first Manuvadi party, or one adhering to an organized and hierarchical social order. She said the then Prime Minister BV Narasimha Rao sought the alliance to check further downfall of the Congress.
In her book on her struggles and the Bahujan movement, Mayawati writes that the powerful Congress, which had a vote share of 48% in the early 1980s, mocked the BSP and its leadership as it barely got 2.4% in its first election in 1985. “The Congress leadership soon realized its growing popularity with the Bahujan Samaj as it rose to over 20% in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections while it fell from 48% to 8%. [in Uttar Pradesh]”.
The BSP advanced and formed a majority government in 2007, while the Congress remained in retreat. Ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, the Congress has sent feelers to the BSP for a possible alliance, shaking its alliance with the SP. In a twist of fate, the BSP has now backed down. The Congress showed some signs of recovery in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the SP.
The Congress-SP alliance won 43 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and secured 43.52% of the votes. Congress won six of the 17 seats it contested and secured 9.46% of the votes. The BSP, which contested alone, received 9.39% of the votes but failed to win any seats.
Some Congress leaders prefer to tie up with the BSP even though Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and BSP chief Akhilesh Yadav share a close relationship. A group of Congress leaders visited Mayawati’s residence last month but were ignored. Is it possible that this happened without the knowledge of the conference leadership? Or is it a pressure tactic to get more seats?
Some Congress leaders are comparing the situation with Tamil Nadu, where a senior leader opposed the pre-poll alliance with the Tamil Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) and stuck with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The Congress allied with TVK when it came to power last month.
Is something cooked in Uttar Pradesh, and why? The SP received 33.59% of votes compared to 9.39% for the BSP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The SP won 111 seats in the 2022 Assembly elections and 37 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. The BSP has one member in the assembly and has no representation in the Lok Sabha. Then why BSP? Mayawati’s votes are transferable. It is flexible in forming alliances, as its guiding force has been power, not ideology. Mayawati has struck deals with the BJP three times.
The most plausible reason why the Congress is keen on an alliance with the BSP might be the possible alliance in Punjab and Uttarakhand as well. The BSP allied with the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab and got 1.77% of the votes in 2022. In Uttarakhand, it got 4.77% of the votes in a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP in the same year.
Without naming anyone, Mayawati wrote in her book that they can think again of adjustments with the BJP unless it abandons its Manuvadian traits and removes petty leaders who are creating a rift. The BJP has changed since then. Now it is not Mayawati, but the BJP, that will dictate the terms.
She wrote about the Congress that the party must realize and pledge not to repeat the mistakes of stepmother treatment of Bahujan Samaj. What can the Congress gain from an alliance with the BSP? Some party workers believe they can rebuild the vote bank of Muslims, Brahmins and Dalits.
The other option for Mayawati is to reach an understanding with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen to try to bring together Dalits and Muslims. But who will win in a multi-party contest – the BJP?
