IPL final draw verdict: Does choosing to bowl first really work? What does history say after RCB’s big call?

New Delhi: Royal Challengers Bengaluru captain Rajat Patidar won the toss and elected to bowl first against Gujarat Titans in the IPL 2026 final on Sunday, backing his bowlers to an early lead on what he described as a good batting surface.The decision immediately sparked the familiar debate that accompanies every IPL final: Does batting or bowling first offer the better route to the title?A look at the history of the Indian Premier League suggests there was no overwhelming advantage either way, although teams who set a goal enjoyed a slight advantage in the tournament’s biggest match.Batting first holds a narrow edgeIn the 18 Indian Premier League finals held ahead of Sunday’s title match, the teams that emerged first won the trophy 10 times, while the chasing teams emerged victorious on eight occasions.The figures suggest that scoreboard pressure often played a crucial role in finals, where nerves and high stakes can make chasing difficult even on batting-friendly surfaces.However, throwing decisions tell a more accurate story.The captain has opted to field first in eight previous IPL finals. Of those eight occasions, only four resulted in the team that chose to chase winning the title.The first such success came in the inaugural final of 2008 when Rajasthan Royals defeated Chennai Super Kings after a play-off selection.

Kolkata Knight Riders repeated the feat in 2014 against Punjab, while Chennai Super Kings successfully chased down Sunrisers Hyderabad in 2018. CSK repeated the feat in 2023, when they beat GT in the final after opting to chase.A mixed record for teams that choose to chaseMany of the leaders who chose to participate first in the finals ended up on the losing side. RCB themselves suffered this heartbreak in 2009 when they chose to chase the Deccan Chargers and failed.Recently, Kolkata lost to Chennai in the 2021 final after being selected to bowl, while Punjab Kings suffered a similar fate against RCB in the 2025 Crest clash.However, Patidar seemed unfazed by historical trends. The RCB skipper said the surface was unlikely to change significantly across the 40 overs and stressed the importance of staying focused on the present rather than focusing on past results.Gujarat Titans captain Shubman Gill revealed that his team would have preferred to bat first anyway, believing there could be help for the fast bowlers as openers.As history only gives a slight advantage to the teams that finish first, it is unlikely that Sunday’s final will be decided by the draw alone. Execution under pressure, not statistics, may ultimately determine who lifts the IPL 2026 trophy.