India can avoid energy shortages and save up to consumers $A new study conducted at the University of California (UC) Berkeley has estimated a $2.5 million ($25 billion) investment by doubling the energy efficiency of air conditioners (ACs) over the next decade.
The study by the University of California, Berkeley’s Indian Energy and Climate Center, titled “Beat the Heat: How Air Conditioner Efficiency Standards Help India Avoid Energy Shortages and Lower Consumer Bills,” highlights that India is adding between 10 to 15 million new air conditioners annually, with another 130 to 150 million air conditioners expected to be added over the next decade.
The authors emphasized that air conditioners are quickly becoming the single largest driver of peak electricity demand, contributing as much as 60 to 70 gigawatts, or 25%, and that each air conditioner consumes 100 to 150 times the electricity needed by an LED light bulb.
HT reported on May 21 that the country’s power grid broke power demand records for four consecutive days amid the extreme heatwave currently ongoing across large swathes of India. India crossed 270 gigawatts of peak demand on May 21, up from the previous day’s peak power demand of 265.44 gigawatts, the power ministry said.
The study also noted that without policy intervention, air conditioning units alone could generate 120 GW of peak power demand by 2030 and 180 GW by 2035, more than 30% of the projected national peak demand.
“Air conditioners already contribute 60 to 70 gigawatts of peak demand, and their growth outpaces the grid’s ability to keep up after the sun goes down,” said Nikit Abhyankar, lead author of the study and a UC Berkeley faculty member. “Without intervention, we risk power outages or costly emergency repairs. But with smart policy, we can turn this challenge into a win for consumers, manufacturers and the grid,” he added.
The Office of Energy Efficiency’s 2028 upgrade to AC efficiency standards raises the minimum energy efficiency by 25% (one star).
The study calls for a long-term roadmap that gradually raises the bar until the most efficient air conditioner (better than the current five-star rating/ISEER 6.7) available in India today becomes the minimum standard by 2033.
This roadmap could reduce peak demand by 10 GW by 2030 and 47 GW by 2035, the equivalent of about 100 large power plants, providing an estimated 100 GW by 2035, the authors said. $8 lakh crore ($80 billion) in energy infrastructure investments.
Efficient air conditioners also provide significant benefits to the consumer. Even with slightly higher upfront prices, they can still achieve a net savings of $90,000-2,40,000 crore ($9-25 billion) by 2035 – will pay for themselves within 2-3 years through lower electricity bills, the study said.
“A common concern is that more efficient air conditioners will be more expensive,” said Amol Phadke, co-author and faculty member at UC Berkeley. “But our analysis of global markets, including India, shows that efficiency is not the main driver of retail prices. With the right policy support, higher efficiency can go hand in hand with lower costs as manufacturers scale up production, supply chains mature, and markets become more competitive,” he added. The market is already adjusting. There are over 1,000 AC models already operating above the 5-star current efficiency threshold in India, many of which are produced by local manufacturers.
Average room air conditioner ownership among urban Indian households is currently around 10%, rising to nearly 25% in higher income sectors, with significantly higher penetration already in cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru.
