India can avoid severe energy shortages and save consumers up to $2.5 lakh crore over the next decade simply by doubling the energy efficiency of air conditioners, according to a new study.
The study conducted by the India Energy and Climate Center (IECC) at the University of California (UC) Berkeley is titled Beating the heat: How air conditioner efficiency standards help India avoid energy shortages and lower consumer billshighlights that India is adding 10 to 15 million new air conditioners annually, with another 130 to 150 million expected to be added over the next decade.
Air conditioning is quickly becoming the single largest driver of peak electricity demand – contributing as much as 60-70 gigawatts (GW) or 25%. The authors explained that air conditioners consume large amounts of energy, as each one consumes 100 to 150 times the electricity consumed by an LED lamp.
On May 21, HT reported that an extreme heatwave sweeping across wide swaths of India pushed the country’s power grid to a new high, breaking power demand records for the fourth straight day.
India crossed 270 GW of peak demand on Thursday, up from Wednesday’s peak power demand of 265.44 GW, the Energy Ministry said, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that extreme daytime temperatures would continue throughout the week.
Without policy intervention, air conditioning units alone could achieve 120 gigawatts of peak power demand by 2030 and 180 gigawatts by 2035, more than 30% of the projected national peak demand, the authors said.
“Air conditioners already contribute 60 to 70 gigawatts of peak demand, and their growth outpaces the grid’s ability to keep up after the sun goes down,” said Niket Abhyankar, lead author of the study and a UC Berkeley faculty member.
“Without intervention, we risk power outages or costly emergency repairs. But with smart policy, we can turn this challenge into a win for consumers, manufacturers and the grid,” he added.
Read also:“Use electricity wisely”: The government urges citizens amid a severe heatwave warning as energy demand rises to record levels
The Office of Energy Efficiency’s 2028 upgrade to AC efficiency standards raises the minimum energy efficiency by 25% (one star).
The study calls for a long-term roadmap that gradually raises the bar until the most efficient air conditioner (better than the current five-star rating/ISEER 6.7) available in India today becomes the minimum standard by 2033.
This roadmap could reduce peak demand by 10 GW by 2030 and 47 GW by 2035, the equivalent of about 100 large power plants, providing an estimated 100 GW by 2035. $8 lakh crore ($80 billion) in investment in energy infrastructure.
Efficient air conditioners also provide significant benefits to the consumer. Even with slightly higher upfront prices, they can still achieve a net savings of $90,000-2,40,000 crore ($9-25 billion) by 2035 will pay for themselves within two to three years through lower electricity bills, the study said.
“A common concern is that more efficient air conditioners will be more expensive,” said Amol Phadke, co-author and faculty member at UC Berkeley. “But our analysis of global markets, including India, shows that efficiency is not the main driver of retail prices. With the right policy support, higher efficiency can go hand in hand with lower costs as manufacturers scale up production, supply chains mature, and markets become more competitive,” he added.
The market is already adjusting. There are over 1,000 AC models already operating above the 5-star current efficiency threshold in India, many of which are produced by local manufacturers.
Average room air conditioner ownership among urban Indian households is currently around 10%, rising to nearly 25% in higher income sectors, with significantly higher penetration already in cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru.
