“They sent me to the Mahabharata, in Kurukshetra,” Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav said at a media meet when asked if he had the option of going back in time, where he will be, as he faces a tough battle against the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2027 Assembly elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party seeks to retain power in Uttar Pradesh and maintain its winning streak after the electoral setback in the 2024 national elections.
The SP registered its best performance, winning 37 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, and the Congress increased its tally to six seats from one in 2024. The BJP’s seats in the state fell from 62 in 2019 to 33, as the party’s overall tally fell below the majority mark in Parliament.
Yadav’s reference to the Mahabharata Party reflects the preparation needed to meet the challenge of 2027, which will be crucial for the future of the regional parties and the SP, which was formed 25 years ago. In recent years, the BJP has eliminated regional parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (Bihar), the Trinamool Congress (Bengal), the Jannayak Janata Party (Haryana) and the Biju Janata Dal (Odisha). The Janata Dal (United) handed over the prime minister’s post to the BJP in Bihar, the only northern state where the latter had not headed a government until this year.
Will the BJP clear the final hurdle in the North by eliminating the SP? Uttar Pradesh was the BJP’s stronghold, where the movement to build a Ram temple in Ayodhya led to its national rise. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have successfully used the Hindutva model in Uttar Pradesh.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is the largest political force in the country, with enormous wealth and committed cadres in a polarized country where Muslim bashing succeeds.
The Socialist Party is a regional force and the third largest party in Parliament, but it suffers from a lack of funding. It also has a committed staff. Yadav urged SP workers to increase five votes in each booth to win the 2027 elections. The calculation is based on poll results data. Despite electoral setbacks since 2014, the Socialist Party has increased its share of the vote since 2017.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the SP-Congress alliance is leading in 224 out of 403 Assembly segments. The BJP got 38.30 million votes and 38.16 million Rs. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP and SP secured 41.3 and 32.1% votes. The margin of victory fell sharply from 8.5 million in 2022 to a few hundred thousand in 2024.
How did this happen? The SP expanded its vote bank of Muslims and Yadavs by adding Kurmi, Pal and Dalits to build the PDA (short for Pichra or successor, Dalit, and Alpasanghyak or minority). The SP leadership later described the ‘A’ in PDA as Adhi Abadi (women).
After the 2024 elections, the SP intensified its PDA campaign, realizing that they would not get support from the upper castes – Brahmins and Baniyas – despite their discontent, but would remain with the BJP. The Rajputs will never abandon Adityanath.
PDA is 80% of the total population. But Brahmins are opinion makers. The Rajputs have muscle power, while the Baniyas have money. The upper castes influence elections in villages, and their isolation will harm the Socialist Party.
The mood in the SP camp is upbeat even after the BJP won the toughest state in West Bengal. The argument is that Uttar Pradesh is different and there is an alternative to the BJP that works in favor of the SP. Akhilesh Yadav described the 2027 elections as a contest between the BJP and the PDP. His message to workers at the booth level is: “BJP’s victory march started from Uttar Pradesh and their political downfall will also start from here.”
The stage is set for a fierce direct fight between the BJP and the SP. It is an advantage for the BJP, but caste-based elections could help the SP, as well as frustration among some groups, such as farmers and youth. The BJP has portrayed the SP as anti-Hindu, building a narrative around communal issues and alleged lawlessness during its rule.
Both parties are making corrections in their class calculations and picture building. Akhilesh Yadav is introducing soft Hindutva into his PDA formula by building the Kedareshwar temple in Etawah, which is likely to be inaugurated before the polls. Adityanath appointed backward and Brahmin ministers. This will also be reflected in regulatory changes.
Many believe the 2024 Lok Sabha polls were an aberration, but the SP’s confidence stems from the continued focus on PDA, highlighting issues like quotas.
Akhilesh Yadav asserted that his alliance with Congress will continue and that winning will be his guiding principle. A section of Congress leaders have called for an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). If they succeed, the BJP will be in a win-win situation, as the Muslim and Dalit votes will be sharply divided, which will weaken the SP, the BJP, and the Congress. BSP chief Mayawati was open to alliances depending on the situation.
In 2024, the BSP was inactive. Mayawati has held several organizing meetings and two public rallies targeting the SP ahead of the 2027 elections. Small parties like the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) will cut into the BJP’s votes, and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) will hurt the SP. Other small parties will split other backward class votes in their areas in favor of the BJP. The BJP cannot afford to lose the state, while the SP needs to win because of its political importance.
