CSK’s chances took a hit with Friday’s loss and KKR and DC have really slim chances. There are still 1,024 possible combinations of results, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight results remaining in the race.
We look at the possibilities:
- Despite their loss on Saturday, GT are certain of finishing in the top four in terms of points (although they could be tied with up to four other teams), and their chances of finishing in first or second place, alone or combined, remain a very high 80.5%.
- RCB has a 99.6% chance of being in the top four in points and an 86.3% chance of being in the top two.
- SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four in points are 82% and they have a 47.3% chance of being in the top two.
- RR’s chances of making the top four in points have improved to 59.1% and they have a 26.6% chance of grabbing one of the top two spots.
- PBKS’s chances of finishing in the top four in points are 50.2% but they only have a 14.1% chance of finishing in the top two.
- CSK’s chances of being in the top four in points are now 34.8% and they have only a 19.5% chance of ending up in the top two.
- Saturday’s win improves KKR’s chances of reaching the quarter-finals but only by 10%, and they can no longer even tie for the top two.
- DC’s hopes of making the playoffs stand at 6.1%. Like KKR, they are no longer in contention for the top two spots
How do we arrive at probabilities: There are 1,024 possible combinations of results remaining with 10 matches remaining.
For each team, we looked at how many teams ended up being in the top four either alone or tied. We also looked at the number of combinations that placed each team in the top two either individually or combined. For example, GT finished in the top four on points in all 1,024 possible combinations of match results, which translates to a 100% chance of only being in the top four on points, but since some of them involve draws, it’s not yet guaranteed to qualify.