TOI correspondent from Washington: US President Donald Trump continued his hardline approach towards Iran, with the two sides exchanging fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday amid a diplomatic stalemate.
While the international community appears to have begun to realize that Washington may have overstated its role in the conflict, signs of Iranian resilience and defiance prompted Trump to issue what was seen as another veiled nuclear threat against a country he has repeatedly threatened to subjugate.
While insisting that the ceasefire with Iran remained in effect despite the escalation in hostilities in the Gulf, Trump told reporters: “If there is no ceasefire, you don’t have to know.
All you have to do is look at a big flare coming out of Iran.” “One big flare” sounded close to a nuclear threat, and he followed it up with another warning: “They better sign the deal quickly… and if they don’t sign, they’re going to suffer a lot of pain.”
“These statements came after renewed missile exchanges, drone attacks and naval skirmishes in and around the Gulf on Thursday, even as Washington insisted that negotiations with Tehran were still ongoing.
Administration officials later tried to soften the interpretation of the nuclear threat, saying the president was referring broadly to American military power. Trump’s threats also came awkwardly alongside new intelligence leaks indicating that the United States may not have as much control as the White House publicly expects. A classified CIA assessment circulated among senior policymakers is said to conclude that Iran is capable of withstanding the US-led naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz for at least three to four months – and perhaps longer – despite heavy bombing and intense economic pressure.
Reports indicate that intelligence estimates that Iran still retains about 70% of its missile launch capability, and has resumed parts of its missile production network even though Trump bragged about eliminating them, leaving Iran with less than 20% of the capability. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi appeared to mock Trump over the issue, claiming that Tehran’s missile stockpile and launch capability are at 120 percent, much higher than US assessments.
“Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the United States opts for a reckless military adventure. Is this a crude pressure tactic? Or the result of a spoiler who once again tricks the president into another quagmire?” Araqchi said in a post on the X website as reports in the US media began to question Trump’s assertions about folding Iran. The intelligence findings undermine repeated White House claims that Tehran is on the verge of military and economic collapse.
Instead, intelligence officials have warned, Iran appears prepared for a long war of attrition, relying on Washington’s limited political patience and mounting pressures on US military stockpiles.These concerns were amplified by another report that resonated in strategic circles in Washington. Under the catchy headline “China sees a ‘lame giant’ as US drains weapons in Iran war,” analysts close to Beijing claimed that the prolonged US campaign against Iran is weakening America’s deterrence posture in the Pacific, especially in Taiwan.Chinese analysts reportedly believe the Iranian conflict exposes vulnerabilities in US logistics, missile stockpiles and political endurance — an assessment likely to increase Beijing’s leverage in future negotiations with Washington. Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing later this month, and for now, the picture that both reports highlight is one of a superpower trying to look like a giant while calmly confronting the calculations of overextension.This contradiction was on display again on Thursday when Trump simultaneously bragged that Iran was “blown up in two minutes” after new clashes in the Gulf, while also insisting that negotiations were “going very well.” The US president has also become the butt of constant jokes on late-night television, capitalizing on growing public anxiety about another far-off war. The latest military exchanges began late Wednesday when Iranian drones and anti-ship missiles targeted US naval assets escorting commercial ships near Hormuz.
Pentagon officials said US destroyers intercepted several projectiles, although regional reports indicated that at least one ship sustained minor damage. Meanwhile, Iran accused Washington of violating the ceasefire framework by continuing maritime interceptions and air surveillance operations near Iranian territory.Inside Washington, the conflict is also revealing divisions within Trump’s coalition. Some Republican hawks are pushing for broader strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Revolutionary Guard leadership targets, saying Tehran is showing flexibility precisely because Washington has not escalated forcefully enough. But another faction — including many military officials and foreign policy conservatives — fears the administration will be drawn into an open regional war with unclear goals, rising costs, and diminishing strategic returns.
