Exit poll forecasts released from April 29 onwards gave the BJP a slim lead against Mamata, who was eyeing a fourth term.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Monday defied expectations and exit polls to make a huge inroad in Bengal, a state where the party has never formed a government in its history.
The BJP maintained its lead with 192 seats, while Mamata Banerjee’s party won 95 seats, according to Election Commission trends at 2:30 pm. Congress, CPI(M) and AISF are leading by one seat each.
While the exit polls came out right this time, the BJP beat its expectations with a majority of more than two-thirds. A majority of pollsters gave a slim lead to the saffron camp.
Meanwhile, Mamata warned party workers not to leave the counting places even as she said: “Don’t lose heart, we will win after sunset.”
How the BJP beat exit poll predictions
Exit poll forecasts released from April 29 onwards gave the BJP a slim lead against Mamata, who was eyeing a fourth term. But poll organizers failed to measure the massive support for the saffron camp.
One possible reason behind the conservative number of pollsters may have to do with the outlook for 2021. In 2021, a majority of exit polls gave a mandate to the BJP, however, the TMC got a huge mandate in the state, defying most of the predictions.
In 2026, a majority of pollsters, including Matriz, BMark, Poll Diaries, Today’s Chanakya and GVC, predict a BJP win. On the other hand, Peoples Pulse and Janmat Polls have given mandate to Mamata Banerjee’s TMC.
While the Matrez gave 146-161 seats to the BJP, the P-Marq gave the party 150-175 seats, the poll diary 142-171 and the JVC 138-159.
Axis My India, which released the figures for Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, chose to beat the forecast for Bengal.
However, the closest prediction to the actual numbers was from Chanakya Today, which predicted 192 seats for the BJP and 100 seats for the TMC.
The forecast from the opinion poll was the closest to the actual TMC numbers as it predicted between 99-152 TMC seats.
Bengal: a state of surprise and alarm
Like every other election in Bengal, the local body polls once again turned out to be full of surprises and turmoil.
While the TMC, which is expected to compete with the BJP, is struggling to reach the 100-seat mark. But Mamata claimed that the counting of votes has stopped in several seats where the TMC is leading. She said the result would be reversed after sunset.
In 2021, while the TMC won 213 seats, the BJP was limited to 77 seats. But the top party, Mamata, lost Nandigram to Suvendu.
This time, Suvendu is ahead in Nandigram, but trails to Mamata in Bhabanipur.
Polling in Bengal was held in two phases: the first phase was held on 152 seats on April 23 and the second phase on 142 seats tomorrow.
Majid Alam is a senior content producer at the New Delhi-based Hindustan Times. He currently heads the online office shifts and manages the homepage apart from writing, editing and organizing articles. Majed has more than six years of experience in the field of journalism, and has navigated national, political and international news. His work focuses primarily on Indian heartland politics, government policy, and South Asia. He also writes about US and European policies towards India. Before joining Hindustan Times, Majid worked at ABP LIVE as Chief Copy Editor and at News18, where he ran the World and Explainers divisions. His articles have appeared in Dialogue Earth, The Quint, BMJ, The Diplomat and Outlook India. Majid has a keen interest in using data to tell stories. Majid holds a master’s degree in convergent journalism from Jamia Millia Islamia. He was awarded an Erasmus+ scholarship to study International Affairs at Sciences Po in Paris in 2020. He is also part of OCEANS, the Erasmus+ researcher exchange alumni network. He currently holds the position of National Representative (India) in OCEANS Network. Aside from journalism, Majed has a talent for academic writing and loves teaching. He has published a chapter from the book: “Bombay Cinema and Postmodernism” in the book: “A Handbook of Research on Social and Cultural Dynamics in Indian Cinema”. He was also part of the OCEANS network delegation to Hanoi National University of Education, Vietnam in 2025. He also gave a guest lecture on digital journalism at AJK MCRC, Jamia Millia Islamia.Read more
