Here are four data points that will hold the key to the results in West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Tamil Nadu
Election results in states The announcement will be made tomorrow for the states of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and the Union Territory of Puducherry. Here are four data points that will hold the key to the results in four key states.
Can Hindu BJP consolidation in West Bengal cross a critical threshold?
This is the crudest and most effective way of looking at political competition in West Bengal. The Trinamool Congress has won every election in the state since 2009. In the last three elections, 2019 Lok Sabha, 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was the main opposition party with a vote share in the field of around 40%. Now, if one can justifiably assume that the BJP is not getting any Muslim votes, then its prospects for taking over the TMC depend on consolidating its current lead over the TMC among Hindu voters. For the BJP to reach the roughly 45% vote share – which the TMC currently enjoys – it will have to integrate nearly two-thirds of the state’s Hindu population.
Will Congress be able to break the growing isolation of Muslims in Assam?
The legislative power of the Congress diminished significantly in Assam in the Assembly elections after 2014. What is no less important is the fact that although the overall number of MLAs has decreased, the number of Muslim members joining the Congress has actually increased. This number is likely to rise further given the fact that the Congress largely wiped out the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the state. However, unless it can regain its magic outside the Muslim-majority parts of the state, the Congress cannot hope to dislodge the BJP there.
Will the LDF retain its average vote share in Kerala?
Changing power had been the norm for four decades in Kerala until the Communist Party of India (Marxist) led by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) managed to reverse the trend in the 2021 elections by retaining power. So the loss this time should not really be surprising in a state that tends to be anti-incumbency, even though it means that, for the first time in fifty years, Communists will not be in a state government in India. But what is more important is whether the LDP is able to maintain its vote share of close to 45%. Its lowest voter turnout in any election since 1980 was 43.35%. This is very important because the significant erosion in the LDF’s vote share could mean that some of its core voters leave it for the BJP, which got 16.8% of the votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Will Vijay break the Dravidian duopoly in Tamil Nadu politics?
When the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) allied with the BJP in Tamil Nadu in April 2025, the contest was expected to be more bipolar than the unilateral dominance that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance had enjoyed since 2019. However, the entry of greenhorn politician but star actor Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) party made The electoral waters are so turbulent that some polls already view her as a player to be reckoned with. The DMK-AIADMK duopoly has enjoyed nearly 80% vote share in the state since 1990. What also remains to be seen is whether TVK’s support comes at the expense of one of the Dravidian giants who account for a fifth of the electorate and which has been sitting on the fence in the state.
Roshan Kishore is data and political economy editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly HT Featured Trading Terms column appears every Friday.
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