“Rain or shine, we have to do farming,” said Makhan Lal, a cane farmer from Shamli, a fertile belt located about 100 km from the national capital. “We can’t afford to skip the season.”
Farmers in food-rich Indian states, such as Uttar Pradesh, are concerned about El Niño, a weather anomaly that can appear in the second half of the monsoon season and reduce rainfall around July, the peak month for summer planting in India, the world’s largest rice exporter and agricultural powerhouse.
Scientists are pretty sure that the weather phenomenon, characterized by rising sea surface temperatures, will spread around the world this year, leading to a dry summer in South Asia and floods in South America. El Niño has caused at least ten years of drought in India since 1950.
The impacts on Asia’s third-largest economy are neither uniform across crops nor the country’s four agro-climatic zones. They can still reduce farm incomes and stifle growth in a country where agriculture accounts for nearly 15% of GDP and employs nearly half the population.
El Niño and La Niña are two alternating cycles of the so-called El Niño Southern Oscillation, a weather pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean. When ocean temperatures rise, it causes the El Niño phenomenon. La Niña, the opposite phenomenon, occurs when large areas of the Pacific Ocean cool, bringing heavy rains to India.
Steady, evenly distributed monsoon rains are the lifeblood of the nation, vital for irrigation, drinking and hydroelectric power. Abundant crops lead to higher incomes in rural areas and generate demand for goods. For example, nearly half of motorcycles are sold in rural India, according to industry data. Such purchases keep the economy thriving.
Drought-like conditions can lead to reduced food production, lower yields, or lead to the production of poor quality produce. The agriculture sector has registered decent growth in the past five years, with an inflation-adjusted average of 4.4%, according to the government’s Economic Survey 2025-2026.
The monsoon is also affected by the so-called Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, which refers to the temperature difference between two regions deep in the Indian Ocean. If the IOD remains positive, it can offset the effects of El Niño, but not always. The good news is that the India Meteorological Department expects a positive IOD this summer, the Met office said in its pre-monsoon forecast last week.
Even a moderate El Niño can damage growth. In 2019, as a weak El Niño swept the world, farm gross value added, a measure of growth, slowed to 2.10%.
A 2% percentage point decline from “this indicator” (nearly 4% agricultural growth) would entail an overall decline in gross value added growth of about 0.3%, according to economist DK Srivastava. In 2010, the year after India suffered its worst drought in three decades due to the El Niño phenomenon, agricultural growth turned negative at 0.20%. The monsoon season from June to September accounts for nearly half of the country’s annual food supply.
Srivatava’s research shows that total foodgrain production declined in 12 out of 15 years due to El Niño. Oilseed production declined in 13 of these years. Sugarcane production tends to escape any major impact because it is a hardier crop.
Research shows that production is most affected in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Bihar and Haryana, mainly because they produce the largest amount of food, nearly two-thirds of the total production. As the quality of the products declines or declines, farmers lose their income.
India’s food reserves are growing amid rising production. Production in 2025-2026 is expected to rise by 3% to 348 million tons. “Droughts no longer fuel famines as they did in colonial times,” said Rahul Chauhan of iGreen Research Ltd. “But they can cause a lot of pain to farmers and lead to higher inflation.”
