Khamenei dies and Iranians celebrate: Can the demonstrators finally topple the regime? –

Revealed: Khamenei’s last move inside his compound in Tehran, it was a secret gathering – and then came 30 bombs

• President Donald Trump described the killing as a historic opportunity for regime change, saying: “This is the Iranian people’s greatest opportunity to take back their country.”
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued his own call to the Iranians, saying: “This is your time to join forces, overthrow the regime, and secure your future.”
• In Tehran, Agence France-Presse reported a state of jubilation and sadness: chants in the streets after the initial reports, and then thousands in Coup Square chanted “Death to America.”

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• The street mood is not unique. The New York Times described “large crowds” celebrating in Tehran and other cities, with chants of “Freedom, freedom” and rooftop chants of “Khamenei has gone to hell,” even as some supporters privately mourned and others feared more strikes.
• The regime still has procedures and weapons. Under Iran’s constitutional mechanism, an interim leadership council is quickly formed, while the Assembly of Experts is supposed to select the new supreme leader.
• The conflict is expanding in real time. Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel and US-linked targets in the Gulf raise the possibility that domestic politics will be shaped as much by wartime nationalism as by anti-regime fervor.

• The Times reports paint a rare glimpse of spontaneous, decentralized celebration under severe restrictions: Landline and cellphone service has been halted, yet people still gather, honking car horns, dancing and chanting “Hurray.”
• One Tehran resident, identified only by first name, described the shift from private to public the moment the news broke. “Then we ran outside and screamed at the top of our lungs, laughed and danced with our neighbors,” Sarah told the New York Times.
• But AFP also described the counter-mobilization: thousands of black-clad mourners in Inqelab Square chanting “Death to America.” This is important because it indicates that the state can still summon loyalist crowds — and, more importantly, that it can still deploy Basij and security forces to control public space when it chooses.

• If Khamenei is the face of the regime, the IRGC has long been its muscle and, increasingly, its wallet. The IRGC responds directly to the Supreme Leader, stands apart from the traditional military chain, and has expanded its influence through politics and business over decades, including large contracting operations and deep entanglement with strategic sectors. The Basij militia, under the control of the Revolutionary Guards, is often deployed to crush protests.
• And here lies the destabilizing development: This war appears to have beheaded parts of that security elite. The Iranian judiciary confirmed that Ali Shamkhani, one of his senior advisors, and General Muhammad PakpourThe Revolutionary Guard commander was killed. Reuters separately reported that the strike was timed according to real-time intelligence about a meeting involving Khamenei and his top aides.
• A weak leadership structure can create opportunities. It can also lead to panic, paranoia, and overreaction. In the hours that followed the confirmation of Khamenei’s death, the Revolutionary Guard vowed to carry out the “most ferocious” operation in history against Israel and American bases, according to Agence France-Presse. This promise is not limited to opponents abroad only; It is also a message to Iranians at home: We still exist, we still punish, and we still decide

• Organization: Local celebrations and protests are not the same as a unified national opposition with command and control – especially in light of internet outages and fear of retaliation.
• Momentum: Emotional liberation is real, but it may be short-lived if the next stage is mass arrests, curfews and targeted violence by security services.
• Elite divisions: Reuters emphasizes the IRGC’s entrenched political and economic power and its direct line to the supreme leader, suggesting that the IRGC could become decisive kingmakers, or even de facto rulers, if the power of the clergy weakens.

1. Will the protests move from celebration to the continuous occupation of public squares? One night of euphoria does not mean permanent control of the streets – especially if it is followed by loyalist counter-marches and forceful dispersals.
2. Will the army break or unite? Trump’s warnings and Iran’s cycle of retaliation could prompt leaders to close ranks in a “rally around the flag” style, even if some units are particularly disaffected with the clerical regime.
3. Will the foreign war stop or escalate? If missile exchanges intensify, domestic priorities may shift from regime change to survival and retaliation – and the regime may justify blanket repression under emergency conditions.