‘26% vs 8%’: Congress MP pushes for leading alliance in Puducherry – Will DMK concede?

Puducherry, a union territory located within the state of Tamil Nadu, is scheduled to go to the polls in April along with the state. But the growing rift between the Congress and its ally, the TDP – which rules Tamil Nadu alone despite their alliance – now threatens to spill over into Puducherry just months before the crucial assembly elections.At the heart of the conflict is the Congress’s demand for power-sharing in Tamil Nadu if the KDP-led bloc wins again, along with a larger number of contestable seats than in the 2021 elections. Puducherry, given its geographical and cultural proximity to Tamil Nadu, also stands out as a stage for this simmering rift.Manickam Tagore, a close confidant of former Congress president and current Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, has been the public face of the party’s push for greater “respect” from the TDP in Tamil Nadu.

Now he is expanding the demand for ‘respect’ in Puducherry as well.How feasible is Tagore’s demand? Can he – or the Congress – force the DMK to concede? Where does the DMK stand on this issue? With the elections approaching, can the coalition withstand the internal pressures? Let’s take a closer look.

Congress: The giant of Puducherry politics

Congress dominated politics in Puducherry, a former French colony. Three other parties also formed governments here – the DMK, the AIADMK and the All India NR Congress – but none of them ever enjoyed the level of dominance that the Congress did.

This dominance is evident in the numbers: of the ten chief ministers of Puducherry, seven belong to the Congress Party. The UT’s only Lok Sabha seat also reflects this political success. This constituency, also called Puducherry, has been contested in 15 general elections since 1967 and has been won by the Grand Old Party – either directly or through its factions – 11 times.This legacy perhaps explains why the Congress saw Puducherry as politically important.

Given its long-term dominance and the potential risk of defeat, Congress will be eager to regain its advantage here.

Manickam Tagore shot “26% vs 8%”.

Against the backdrop of political tensions in Tamil Nadu, the first signs of a possible extension to Puducherry emerged on February 6. That day, Tagore posted on social media, citing election data to say that the Congress – not the KDP – should lead their alliance in Puducherry.

He asked, “Will the party that received 8% of the votes lead the coalition? No, the party that received 26% of the votes will lead the coalition.”

Why should you talk to the Congress party in the coalition? He asked.Read also | ‘26% votes vs 8% votes’: Congress MP Tagore targets his ally DMK; He is seeking a leadership role for the Puducherry unit of the UT associated with the reconnaissanceThe data he referred to was from the 2014 general elections. He did not explain why he chose figures dating back more than a decade, especially from parliamentary elections, instead of competing for the House of Representatives. In that election, the Congress finished second in the Puducherry Lok Sabha constituency, while the DMK came fourth. Congress candidate V Narayanasamy, who became chief minister after two years and held the position for more than four years, received 26.35% of the votes, while DMK’s AMH Nazeem polled 8.19% and came fourth.It appears to be the visit of DMK election officer and Lok Sabha MP S Jagathrakshakan to Puducherry that triggered the current episode. During the trip he did not meet Congress leaders, and this “disdain”, coupled with the ongoing friction in Tamil Nadu, appears to have inflamed Tagore’s anger.But beyond direct provocation, the bigger question is whether his assertion is merely rhetorical posturing or whether it is based on electoral reality.

Congress in Puducherry: historically dominant – not so much today?

Despite Tagore’s resolute stance, the reality on the ground appears far less encouraging – if not downright worrying – for the Congress Party in Puducherry, where it was once the dominant political force. While the DMK remains the undisputed leader of the alliance in Tamil Nadu, the Congress now finds itself on a comparatively weaker footing in Puducherry. Although she won the Puducherry seat in the last general election, her performance in the 2021 Assembly elections was far less impressive.

The Congress won only two of the 14 seats it contested, a sharp decline from the 15 of the 21 seats it won during a successful election campaign five years ago.

In contrast, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which competed for 13 council constituencies under a seat-sharing arrangement, won six of them – securing the position of opposition leader in the council. The DMK, currently headed by Tamil Nadu MK CM Stalin, managed to get only two of the nine seats it contested in 2016.

Hence, Tagore’s statements can be read either as an election season posturing or as a calculated attempt to put pressure on the KDP – in Puducherry or even in Tamil Nadu.

Congress without influence?

The KDP remains an important political player in Puducherry, while the Congress has been largely marginal in Tamil Nadu, having last headed a government there in 1967 and last served as leader of the opposition in 1996.The Dravidian major’s categorical refusal to share power in the southern state – a position reiterated by Stalin himself – poses a major challenge to the Congress, leaving it trying to assert itself in Puducherry, where its historical influence still exists and where the party is in power until 2021.

But the Congress Party’s influence – or lack thereof – in Tamil Nadu is already evident. The state Congress unit urged the party’s national president, Mallikarjun Kharge, to take action against Tagore over his criticism of the DMK, which also called for action against MP Virudhunagar.Read also | TN Cong seeks action against party MP Manickam Tagore for putting DMK relations under ‘stress’Whether the DMK exercises this influence in Puducherry as well or cedes ground to the Congress to keep the alliance together before the elections, it will not only constitute a direct electoral battle with the ruling NDA coalition in UT, but also the long-term balance of power between the two allies.

Why can’t Congress afford friction in Puducherry?

With so much at stake, the Congress party cannot risk raising tensions in Puducherry, especially on the eve of elections. With governments in only three states – Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana – the Congress cannot afford new tensions within the alliance. Victory in Puducherry would provide the party with a much-needed additional governing foothold and strengthen its hold within India, the nationalist opposition bloc it leads.

Tensions are rising within the opposition coalition after a series of electoral setbacks following the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, in which they succeeded in bringing the BJP below the vote mark. Endodontics for the first time since 2014.For now, Congress appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach. Whether this strategy will strengthen its position or strain a major coalition before the election will be revealed soon.