For the first time in 17 years, 2021 champions Australia have been knocked out at the group stage of the T20 World Cup. Mitchell Marsh’s injury-hit side lost to Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka respectively before a clash between Zimbabwe and Ireland sealed their early elimination. They still have a game in hand against Oman later this week, but the humiliating exit has raised fears it could undermine their hopes of qualifying for the 2028 Olympics. However, Australia still have time on their side.
Cricket will appear at the Olympic Games for the first time in 126 years when the T20 format makes its debut at the 2028 Los Angeles Games, scheduled to be held at the Fairplex in Pomona, California. While qualification for the women’s competition will be decided by this year’s T20 World Cup, the route for the men’s event has yet to be officially finalized.
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According to a report published by The Guardian last year, the men’s competition is expected to include six teams. The United States will automatically qualify as host, along with one top-ranked team from each ICC, Americas, Africa, Europe, Asia and Oceania regional division, based on the ICC T20I rankings at the deadline.
Australia, currently ranked third in the ICC T20I rankings, was widely expected to remain the highest-ranked team from the Oceania region ahead of New Zealand (No. 4). However, following their early World Cup exit, The Age reports Australia are at risk of being overtaken if 2021 runners-up New Zealand reach the semi-finals or final of the 2026 T20 World Cup. In this scenario, the Black Caps could become the top-ranked team in Oceania and secure a spot in the Olympics.
However, the classification calculation is more complex than a simple positional swap.
Although Australia and New Zealand are only one place apart, the gap between them is eight ranking points. On the surface, this may seem surmountable, but the ICC rankings are calculated using a weighted ranking system devised by statistician David Kendix.
Team ratings are determined by dividing the total points earned in matches played, with results weighted based on the strength and freshness of the opponent. Matches from the previous two years carry full weight, while matches from the previous two-year window carry half the weight. The rankings are updated annually around May 1st.
Currently, Australia’s ranking is based on 48 matches, while New Zealand’s is based on 62. If New Zealand reaches the World Cup final, its tally will rise to 67 matches, compared to Australia’s expected 49 matches.
If Australia loses to Oman, its ranking will drop from 258 to 256.
For New Zealand to surpass that number, they will need to increase their current total of 15,515 points to 17,152 points, an increase of 1,637 points from their remaining five matches.
Even in the best-case scenario, victories over Pakistan, England and Sri Lanka in the Super 8, followed by victories over South Africa in the semi-final and India in the final, would see New Zealand accumulate a maximum of 1,491 points, leaving them with a 146-point lead.
If Australia defeats Oman, and maintain their ranking of 258, the gap becomes more difficult to bridge, even with their first T20 World Cup win.
