President Trump says India is going to stop buying Russian oil. Such a move – which would have a profound impact on global crude trade – is easier said than done.
After Moscow invaded Ukraine, the world’s most populous country became addicted to cheap Russian oil (representative photo).After Moscow invaded Ukraine, the world’s most populous country became addicted to cheap Russian oil. The West shunned Russian power and India was happy to take it away – at a big discount for oil from other sources.
In announcing a trade deal with India on Monday, Trump said India, one of Russia’s biggest customers, had agreed to stop buying from Russia and shift purchases of American oil and potentially oil from Venezuela. The move is intended to pressure Russia economically in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
Analysts are questioning how quickly India can stop importing Russian oil. US crude is much more expensive and takes longer to get to India. Cutting off imports from Russia would threaten the warm, mutually beneficial relationship that New Delhi and Moscow have built over decades and maintained throughout the war.
India, meanwhile, is yet to confirm the oil part of the trade deal with Trump. Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not say anything about the deal in his social-media posts. India’s Ministry of External Affairs also did not comment on this.
The Kremlin told reporters on Tuesday that it had not heard any statement from India about plans to stop buying oil from Russia.
For most of 2025, India relied on Russia for about a third of its oil imports, up from just 2% in early 2022 before Russia invaded Ukraine. In January, the country imported 1.1 million barrels a day from Russia, according to ship-tracking company Vortexa. In comparison, India imported just 0.3 million barrels a day from the US last month.
“I’m skeptical,” said David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa “Completely moving away from Russian crude would be a huge decision for India. I don’t think the real intention is to bring India’s crude imports from Russia to zero. It’s more to increase pressure on Russia.”
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In a sign of that pressure, the price difference between Brent, the global oil benchmark, and Russia’s Urals blend reached $27.10 on Tuesday, up from $26.50 at the end of last year, according to commodity analysis firm Argus Media. This indicates that Russia must make acceptable concessions from buyers.
Expensive optionReplacing Russian crude with US Gulf Coast barrels presents several challenges for Indian refiners, analysts said.
It takes longer to ferry oil from the US to India than from Russia to India. Currently, the transit time from the US Gulf Coast to India is 54 days. From Russia, it is 36 days, according to Vortexa.
Buying from the US is more expensive. According to Vortexa, refiners in India would have to pay an additional $7 per barrel if they switched from Russia to US sellers.
“Refiners are technically capable of operating without the Urals, but rapid disengagement would be commercially challenging and politically sensitive,” according to an analysis by Kepler, a ship-tracking data provider. The company expects imports from Russia to remain stable in the first quarter and early in the second quarter
Refineries in India are used more to refine heavy, sour crude oil, the type of oil in Russia and Venezuela, but not the light, sweet one in the U.S. India could potentially make up for some lost Russian barrels from Venezuela, but oil from the South American country is unlikely to be able to meet India’s huge oil demand.
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According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in 2025, all of Venezuela produced about 900,000 barrels a day. India bought an average of 1.6 million barrels per day from Russia last year.
China is the alternativeAnother major buyer of Russian crude oil is China. The country is the world’s largest oil importer and was the largest buyer of Russian crude last year.
“On paper, Chinese buyers should be able to absorb any amount of Russian crude rejected by India. However, some strategic questions remain,” said Ronald Smith, founding partner of Texas-based Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Consulting Partners.
Most of Russia’s marine oil imports go to China’s independent refinery, known as Tea Leaf. Larger, state-owned refiners cut purchases after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies in October.
Some of these teats are set to run Venezuela’s heavy crude oil, for which the Urals is not a direct alternative, Smith said.
Moreover, from a strategic point of view, such a change would increase China’s dependence on Russia and vice versa. The two countries maintain a friendly, but wary, alliance.
If China absorbed the oil currently going to India, Russian crude would account for more than 20% of China’s total oil imports. This would concentrate more than 50% of Russia’s crude exports to a single country, Smith added.
Write to Rebecca Feng at rebecca.feng@wsj.com
